At the start of the financial year 2023, elevated inflation and aggressive monetary policies in developed countries raised fears that these countries could not possibly avert a recession leading to a global downturn. In the first half of the financial year, however, moderation in inflation levels, deceleration in monetary policy actions, a resilient United States (US) economy and optimism over China’s post-pandemic rebound helped boost sentiment and ease fears of a recession. In the second half of the year, as the effects of a slowdown in but still elevated price pressures and tighter monetary policies became more pronounced and China’s recovery quickly lost momentum, the outlook on growth weakened. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2023 World Economic Outlook, growth in advanced economies is now projected to decelerate from 2.6 per cent in 2022 to 1.5 per cent in 2023 and remain subdued at 1.4 per cent in 2024. However, with the historic level of monetary tightening likely over and a cut in policy interest rates now expected, the market outlook has improved moderately.

1. The Net Asset Value of the Heritage and Stabilization Fund was US$5.466 Billion (TT$37.17 Billion) on Friday June 9, 2023.
2. This is an Increase of US$754 Million (TT$5.127 Billion) in the actual value of the Fund over the last 9 months since September 2022. Excluding a deposit made in December 2022, the Fund has generated comprehensive income of almost US$600 Million since then.